Abstract
We outline how to create a mechanism that provides an optimal way to elicit, from an arbitrary group of experts, the probability of the truth of an arbitrary logical proposition together with collective information that has an explicit form and interprets this probability. Such a system could, in particular, incentivize experts from all over the world to collectively solve scientific or medical problems in a very efficient manner. In our main considerations about real experts, they are not assumed to be Bayesian and their behavior is described by utilities that satisfy the von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms only locally.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.13424