Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have improved robotic manipulation, yet observation-to-action learning remains limited by a fundamental transition realizability gap, manifested in three tightly coupled problems: (i) Transition ambiguity. Visually similar current observations may correspond to different manipulation phases and imply different subsequent transitions. (ii) Prediction--execution mismatch. A visually plausible predicted future observation does not necessarily correspond to a physically realizable transition. (iii) Experience--realization mismatch. A historically executable action pattern may not necessarily realize the intended transition in the current scene and therefore requires context-aware adaptation. Accordingly, we propose UniMPA, a Unified Memory-Prediction-Action model that addresses these problems through a shared action-grounded transition interface. (i) UniMPA introduces Persistent-Selective Future Prediction to resolve transition ambiguity by modeling the intended future state evolution. A persistent latent stream continuously tracks task-level progress, while a transition-critical pixel stream selectively resolves fine-grained interaction changes through memory-grounded prediction. (ii) To assess the physical executability of the anticipated transition, the predicted transition queries a temporal Visual-Action Memory Bank. The bank retrieves historically realized visual-action experience, grounding future prediction in executable evidence. (iii) To adapt executable experience to the current scene, an Action-Visual Memory Bank retrieves visually grounded action prototypes from historical action evolution. Prototype-Biased Flow then shifts the flow source toward a historically supported action manifold for context-aware refinement.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11875
Agent-based model predictive control (AMPC) has recently been proposed as a distributed scheme that collaborates with all agents to achieve optimal holistic performance. However, its optimality highly depends on the prediction accuracy that requires all agents or their contributions to be known, which is too idealistic for actual implementation. This research proposes a novel practical hybrid control scheme - learning agent-based MPC (LAMPC), combining the model-based AMPC approach and data-based learning methods to improve the holistic vehicle performance for multi-agent systems. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) enhanced by an online data management strategy serves as the learning core to predict unknown contributions. A novel multi-step prediction mechanism leverages the GPR learning potential along the horizon. The predicted mean, representing the learned unknown contributions, completes the system model in the MPC for more accurate control. Meanwhile, a stochastic framework is formulated to guarantee control safety and feasibility using soft chance constraints based on the prediction variance. Both simulations and experiments show that, with the learning capability, LAMPC outperforms the traditional AMPC. LAMPC can achieve higher tracking performance in well-learned scenarios and always guarantee constraint satisfaction even in less-learned scenarios. Moreover, the proposed hybrid control scheme is efficient for real-time implementation and is flexible to any control agent topology.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11871
A language model normally begins training with random word embeddings: whatever 'banana' means must be learned from training corpora. I implement St. Augustine's picture of word learning, meaning by ostension, for a small masked language model (DeBERTa) trained on 10M words: before training, visually grounded tokens receive embeddings derived from the image regions they label; other tokens start random. Visual initialization leaves a measurable imprint that lasts until the end of training. At the same time, the effect remains invisible under most BabyLM benchmarks, which probe abstract grammatical knowledge: visual initialization does not affect performance there. The only zero-shot exception is object-property knowledge (COMPS, Misra et al. 2023), where seeding helps in every configuration. To follow up on this result, I build a corpus-tailored version of the Visual-Property Swap benchmark (Lin et al., 2026), which tests color, material, size, and shape knowledge, with per-item training frequency and seeded status. Here, vision-seeded models have a persistent, seed- replicated advantage, confined to the seeded words. As a causal test, I show that synthetic grounding of previously unseeded words transfers the advantage to exactly those words. Function words and abstract vocabulary also receive strong visual seeds and retain them throughout training, and the training objective draws on them: held-out mask-prediction loss falls for these words in every seed. However, no benchmark I run registers this. What evaluation would pick this up remains an open question.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11870
Energy consumption forecasting relies on increasingly complex machine learning (ML) models, such as Genetic Programming-based symbolic regressors, whose predictions can be difficult for facility managers and building operators to interpret. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques address this opacity, but traditional XAI dashboards require substantial technical expertise and provide limited flexibility for dynamic, context-aware inquiry. Conversational XAI systems offer a promising alternative; however, previous approaches, such as TalkToModel, were constrained by rigid custom grammars and achieved only 76.8% intent-parsing accuracy. This paper introduces the Explainability Assistant, an open-source conversational XAI system that leverages the function-calling capabilities of modern Large Language Models (LLMs) to overcome these limitations. The system achieves 94% intent-parsing accuracy, supports flexible natural language interaction, and adapts to different ML problem types without task-specific fine-tuning. We present the system's architecture and report results from a comparative evaluation conducted with energy domain specialists, contrasting the Explainability Assistant with a traditional XAI dashboard. The evaluation suggests improved usability and consistent task accuracy, with all experts unanimously preferring the conversational interface for practical use.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11860
Diffusion and flow-matching schedules control the signal and noise coefficients that mix data and noise along affine probability paths. Minimizing a kinetic action defined on coefficient paths, motivated by optimal transport, helps explain strong baselines but remains model-agnostic and ignores prediction error. Here we introduce a model-aware schedule construction based on fiberwise optimal transport. At a fixed time and state on the probability path, compatible signal/noise decompositions form an affine fiber. We define a fiberwise prediction risk by averaging optimal-transport costs between the true and predictor-induced decompositions within these fibers. On a fixed coefficient curve, combining this risk with coefficient-path kinetic action yields a closed-form optimal time allocation. This construction extends to general linear prediction targets, and the risk profile can be estimated from an early baseline checkpoint. We evaluate DDPMs and flow matching across prediction targets, training configurations, risk-estimation checkpoints, datasets, and architectures. Our model-aware schedules consistently outperform strong baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Each model-agnostic kinetic baseline determines its own kinetic reference coordinate. In these coordinates, fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models in different settings align closely after normalization to unit area. The resulting schedule deformations used in training also align, suggesting empirical universality across the evaluated models and settings. Pretrained-checkpoint diagnostics extend this normalized-risk agreement to larger conditional latent diffusion and 2-RF models. A frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the model-aware improvement without further risk estimation or model-specific fitting.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11842
Cardiovascular screening models trained on national health surveys routinely report areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) near 0.89. We asked whether that accuracy reflects learning or target leakage, whether tabular foundation models change the answer, and whether the properties deployment requires survive joint examination. We benchmarked ten classifiers spanning linear, tree-ensemble, neural, glass-box, and tabular foundation classes for prevalent myocardial infarction in 442,067 respondents of the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across five feature tiers of decreasing leakage risk. Each was audited for discrimination, calibration, fairness at an explicit screening threshold, conformal coverage, explanation faithfulness, and inference cost, then applied -- models and thresholds frozen -- to 430,755 respondents of 2023. Removing two post-diagnostic features cost every model 0.049-0.051 AUROC, collapsing the field into a 0.0045-wide band. The glass-box explainable boosting machine was non-inferior to every alternative within a pre-specified 0.005 margin while scoring the cohort roughly 104 times faster than the strongest foundation model. One threshold detected 75.4% of women's infarctions against 89.0% of men's; editing the model's shape functions reduced the gap to 0.010. Marginal conformal prediction gave 0.86 coverage to men and 0.82 to adults over 60; Mondrian calibration repaired every stratum. Frozen models transported within 0.002 AUROC. Reported headroom in this literature is a property of the feature set, not the learner. Transparency cost nothing measurable and made fairness repair and uncertainty conditioning directly auditable. Evaluation practice, not model capacity, is the binding constraint.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11838
Visual Autoregressive Models (VAR) generate images through next-scale prediction, producing all tokens within each scale in parallel. We show that this parallel decoding constitutes a mean-field-style approximation that discards spatial dependencies among same-scale tokens, causing locally incoherent samples regardless of backbone capacity -- a limitation of the decoding rule. Addressing this limitation, we introduce the Logit Refiner, a lightweight autoregressive module that restores intra-scale dependencies by sequentially sampling tokens conditioned on frozen backbone features. Adding only ~10% parameters and less than 5% of the base model's training compute, it plugs into any pretrained VAR checkpoint without retraining. Controlled ablations isolate joint intra-scale sampling -- rather than additional capacity or training -- as the critical ingredient. Across backbones from 310M to 2B parameters on class-conditional ImageNet 256x256, the refiner consistently improves generation quality, enabling a 1.1B-parameter model to surpass one twice its size. The approach further generalizes to text-to-image generation, confirming that the mean-field bottleneck persists across VAR variants and is effectively alleviated by our method. Project page: this https URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11804
Humans and machines often solve harder problems by spending more time on computation. In deep learning, looped models implement this idea during inference by recurrently updating a hidden state. In practice, however, their training backpropagates through only one or a few updates, making it hard to train early updates to support future ones. We propose looped flows, an approach that sidesteps this issue by training the recurrence with local denoising objectives. By imposing temporal association across denoising objectives through progressively decreasing noise levels and shared noise, the model is incentivized to learn recurrent states that transfer useful computation over time, even when gradients cover only a few updates. We then formulate inference as integrating the velocity of a probability flow parameterized by the learned denoiser, coupled with recurrent states. This allows solving harder problems by spending more computation through a finer temporal grid and enables multiple valid predictions from different initial noise samples. Across six reasoning benchmarks including two multi-solution benchmarks, looped flows outperform prior state-of-the-art looped models overall, achieving 58.8% test accuracy on ARC-AGI-1 and 12.2% on ARC-AGI-2.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11801
Unified models for object detection and trajectory forecasting aim to merge perception and prediction for autonomous driving, refining actor trajectories directly over shared bird's-eye-view (BEV) images rasterized from LiDAR and high-definition maps. Their accuracy on dynamic, moving actors, however, remains the hardest part of the task, and the strongest such model, DeTra, has no public implementation. We contribute an openly released DeTra reimplementation with documented approximations, and on top of it MC-DeTra: a family of motion-consistency mechanisms that add supervision through two annotation-derived auxiliary signals -- each actor's observed past motion and the occupancy of the surrounding traffic that forms its social context -- and one inter-output consistency constraint that aligns an actor's predicted heading with its predicted direction of motion. Every proposed loss is train-only and inference-safe: it shapes the shared BEV representation during training and is removed at test time, adding no inference latency. On the Waymo Open Dataset, evaluated under a strict, detection-conditioned forecasting protocol, MC-DeTra improves dynamic, socially-situated trajectory forecasting while preserving or improving detection accuracy; a gradient-based loss-calibration analysis exposes how the auxiliary objectives compete at the shared backbone, and our ablation identifies which signals contribute most. We release code, configurations, and evaluation tooling at this https URL.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11717
Post-training quantization compresses large language models (LLMs) by storing their weights at reduced precision, and each quantized weight introduces an error into the hidden states. Naively, these errors should accumulate with depth and corrupt next-token prediction; randomly initialized models accumulate these discrepancies rapidly, whereas quantized pretrained models accumulate much less hidden-state error and largely maintain downstream task performance, even though they were never trained with quantization noise. This raises the question we address: why does post-training quantization work? Comparing full-precision and quantized forward passes, we identify two mechanisms that characterize pretrained quantization robustness. First, the error a layer newly introduces tends to oppose the error it inherits from the layer's input. The two cancel partially such that the discrepancy between full-precision and quantized passes grows slowly. This counteracting residual interaction develops during pretraining. Our quantitative analysis identifies it as a major factor slowing hidden-error growth. Second, LM-head geometry preferentially preserves the scores and probabilities of high-ranked tokens, which typically represent the model's most confident predictions. Together, these mechanisms explain why quantization error that passes through numerous layers can still produce only small output changes, and we verify the findings across models and quantization settings.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11716
In this work, we develop an inverse Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework to infer the dependence of the scrape-off layer (SOL) perpendicular heat conductivity on plasma density and temperature, $\kappa_\perp(n,T)$. The method combines radial profile measurements of electron density and temperature with the residual of a reduced one-dimensional SOL transport equation, so that the inferred conductivity is constrained by both the measurements and the underlying transport model. Three neural networks are trained simultaneously: two reconstruct the temperature and density profiles as functions of the radial coordinate and transported power, while a third represents the effective conductivity as a function of the local density and temperature. The framework is first validated using synthetic data generated from a prescribed conductivity function, allowing the inferred $\kappa_\perp(n,T)$ to be compared directly with the ground truth. The model recovers the imposed functional dependence with errors below $10~\%$ in the data-constrained region. Bootstrap resampling is shown to provide a practical indicator of prediction reliability and consistency. A scan in the number of plasma profiles used for training and the number of radial measurement positions per profile identifies a practical trade-off between reconstruction accuracy and data availability. Finally, the method is applied to an experimental dataset from the TJ-II stellarator obtained with the helium-beam diagnostic. This exploratory application provides an initial estimate of the effective SOL conductivity and illustrates the potential of inverse PINNs for extracting transport information from plasma edge measurements.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11628
When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11607
Efficient language learning requires methods to reduce the reliance on large data and computational resources. We investigate structural transfer: First training models on non-language data to induce useful priors for natural language. This approach is a form of weight initialization for multilingual language modeling. We evaluate transfer via next-token-prediction loss, weight shifts in the model, and downstream linguistic benchmarks. Several symbolic data types - notably music, probabilistic grammars, and cellular automata - yield lower language-modeling loss than random initialization. These gains coincide with smaller weight shifts during subsequent language training, suggesting that structural transfer positions models in a more favorable region of the parameter space. However, a lower loss does not translate consistently into better downstream linguistic performance, and transfer from non-language data is less efficient than additional language data. We conclude that non-language data can serve as a partial substitute for language data for the training objective of next-token prediction but does not reliably support broader linguistic generalization.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11505
Reconstructing articulated objects from sparse images requires recovering complete geometry, movable parts, and motion parameters. Recent methods typically separate geometry reconstruction, part reasoning, and articulation estimation into different stages. This separation can weaken consistency between shape, active parts, and motion, while also incurring substantial inference cost. We introduce Artic-O, an end-to-end, feed-forward framework for articulated object reconstruction via latent geometry learning. Instead of fitting geometry in image or view space, Artic-O maps sparse multi-state observations into a pretrained latent geometry space, where a frozen flow-matching decoder provides a complete-shape prior for recovering visible and occluded structures. To connect geometry with articulation, Artic-O fuses visual tokens, geometry latents, and point-wise decoder features in an image-grounded part-reasoning module for active-part segmentation and articulation prediction. We further train the model with a geometry-to-articulation curriculum and a decoupled two-pass strategy to balance reconstruction and part-level supervision. On PartNet-Mobility, Artic-O achieves strong reconstruction quality while being substantially more efficient than LARM, a strong prior method. It reduces Chamfer Distance, improves F-score, and achieves comparable or better articulation accuracy across most joint metrics, while reducing inference time from 9 minutes to about 0.3 seconds per object.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21938
Heterogeneous model collaboration seeks to exploit the complementary strengths of different models to balance predictive performance and inference cost. Existing approaches typically rely either on trained routers, which tie routing decisions to a fixed task and model pool, or on raw-confidence cascades, whose thresholds lack consistent reliability semantics across heterogeneous models. Consequently, these approaches adapt poorly to changing model pools and deployment budgets. We propose Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a simple post-hoc framework that independently calibrates each model's confidence and selects deployment policies using validation data. The resulting calibrated confidence scores establish a common reliability scale for accepting an early prediction, invoking a stronger model, or selectively combining model outputs. This unified decision criterion decouples deployment policies from any particular model pool or operating budget. We further show theoretically that calibration gives confidence thresholds an explicit selective-risk interpretation, whereas uncalibrated scores offer no comparable reliability guarantee. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, across six language benchmarks, CAUC achieves an average relative accuracy improvement of 1.9% over strong-model-only inference while avoiding approximately 47% of strong-model calls. On image classification benchmarks, it maintains or improves predictive performance while reducing measured GFLOPs by up to 57%.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11446
Brain age estimation has become a popular research proxy for assessing brain health and disease, yet longitudinal trajectories of brain ageing are still poorly defined, and clinical use is limited. Building on existing Siamese longitudinal frameworks, we develop Brain-Predicted Age Acceleration (Brain-PACE) to directly estimate the pace of structural brain ageing from paired T1-weighted MRI. Brain-PACE identified accelerated ageing in $42.6$% of participants with mild cognitive impairment. Faster Brain-PACE was associated with greater functional and cognitive impairment (FAQ; $r=0.35$, ADAS13; $r=0.30$, CDR-SB; $r=0.32$) and greater regional tau burden in the posterior cingulate ($r=0.59$), precuneus ($r=0.47$), and entorhinal cortex ($r=0.37$). These associations were stronger than those observed when pace was calculated indirectly from repeated cross-sectional brain age estimates, suggesting that direct longitudinal modelling captures complementary information relevant to ongoing pathological change. Methodologically, Brain-PACE extends the LILAC framework by combining spatial attention with soft label distribution learning and a Cramér distance objective, improving probabilistic performance and reducing prediction bias while providing measures of predictive uncertainty. Together, these findings support Brain-PACE as a complementary longitudinal imaging phenotype with sensitivity to relevant clinical and biological changes in early neurodegeneration.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11378
Auditory attention decoding (AAD) identifies the attended speaker from physiological signals, supporting neuro-steered hearing devices and natural human-machine interaction. Electroencephalography (EEG) is the dominant modality for AAD but provides incomplete evidence in naturalistic audio-visual scenes, motivating EEG and electrooculography (EOG) fusion. Existing approaches remain limited by weak cross-modal interaction, inefficient temporal modeling, and low robustness to sample variations. To address the limitations, we propose RAMamba-Net, a reliability-aware Mamba-based multimodal fusion network for AAD. RAMamba-Net employs a Mamba-enhanced band-aware convolutional Transformer to capture band-specific EEG patterns and long-range temporal dynamics. A dual-branch temporal-spatial encoder models EOG temporal and inter-channel dependencies. Cross-modal attention enables explicit modality interaction. Then, a reliability-aware module is introduced to estimate sample-wise modality weights for feature and prediction consistency, thereby enhancing multimodal fusion. Experiments on two AAD benchmarks demonstrate that RAMamba-Net effectively exploits complementary EEG-EOG information, yielding accuracy gains of 5.76% over unimodal baselines, together with more robust decoding and discriminative representations. Further analyses show that explicit cross-modal interaction improves multimodal alignment, while the reliability-aware module suppresses unreliable modality evidence and is robust to signal perturbation and parameter variation.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11372
Knowledge graph foundation models such as ULTRA achieve zero-shot link prediction on unseen graphs through dedicated architectures that hard-code a transfer mechanism. In this work we move that mechanism out of the architecture and into the representation, by \emph{reifying} the input graph: every fact becomes a node, connected to its subject, object, and relation type through a fixed vocabulary of six meta-relations, with relation types as anonymous shared nodes rather than model parameters. On this representation, five textbook GNNs (GAT, GINE with sum and with mean+max aggregation, GraphSAGE, R-GCN), each trained on a single knowledge graph of 4,245 triples for 30 minutes on one NVIDIA A100, transfer zero-shot to 40 inductive link-prediction benchmarks. The best of them, an off-the-shelf GAT, matches ULTRA, a dedicated foundation model pretrained on three graphs, across ULTRA's own evaluation suite. The same fixed vocabulary extends to relational databases, a row becoming an entity and a foreign-key column a relation type; a preliminary probe on two unseen databases, with no cell values, schema text or in-context labels, shows a model of this family pretrained on three knowledge graphs ranking foreign-key targets far above random-initialization and degree controls. We release the code, the checkpoints, and the evaluation pipeline for all 40 benchmarks.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11347
Multimodal brain state decoding has largely focused on fusing paired modalities for prediction, but has rarely explored how their correspondence can be further exploited to enrich training data and improve multimodal representation learning. To address this gap, we propose CoMA-DiT, a bidirectional cross-modal Diffusion Transformer for latent augmentation that treats paired modalities as sources of mutual generative supervision rather than merely as inputs to be fused. CoMA-DiT conditions velocity prediction on the paired modality through cross-modal attention and adaptively injects the resulting variation via a reliability-gated residual mechanism. Experiments on multimodal auditory attention decoding and emotion recognition showed that CoMA-DiT consistently outperformed 20 representative baselines, achieving absolute gains of 4.28% and 6.70% in accuracy and macro-F1 over the no-augmentation baseline, respectively. Extensive ablation, sensitivity, visualization, and interpretability analyses further demonstrated its robustness, generalizability, and ability to capture functionally relevant cross-modal interactions. These findings support a broader view of multimodal learning: Paired modalities can serve not only as inputs for fusion but also as supervision sources that augment one another.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11341
Optical coherence tomography is a promising modality for markerless motion tracking due to its high spatial resolution and inherent depth perception. However, existing OCT-based tracking approaches are limited in terms of trackable velocity, particularly when multiple landmarks are tracked sequentially for 6D pose estimation. In this work, we present a predictive tracking approach that propagates positional updates between multiple tracked landmarks to obtain a global pose prediction. This enables more robust tracking under high velocities. Our results demonstrate RMSEs below 1 mm for velocities up to 100 mm/s and up to nine consecutively tracked landmarks, highlighting the potential of global motion propagation and prediction for improving the robustness of OCT-based tracking.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.11330