Time_Series
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QuanTiMedAI: Quantum-Enhanced Time-Series Model guided by Agentic AI for Cardiac Arrest Mortality Prediction
2026-08-06 17:18:03Mutasim Fuad Sarker, Adiba Rahman Namira, Wafa Binte Alam, Md Adnan Arefeen, Mahzabeen Emu, Sumaiya Tabassum NimiAbstract
Cardiac arrest remains one of the most lethal conditions encountered in intensive care units. Despite the growing availability of electronic health record data, existing mortality prediction studies in this population largely depend on static summaries derived from early admission. Such approaches ignore the temporal progression of physiological deterioration and recovery that unfolds throughout a patient's ICU stay. To address this limitation, we introduce QuanTiMedAI, a quantum-agentic framework developed for cardiac arrest mortality prediction using agentic AI guided quantum enhancement time series model. The proposed system combines an agentic large language model (LLM) for clinically informed feature discovery with a compact quantum recurrent network for temporality aware mortality prediction. Our findings demonstrate that agentic LLM-guided feature selection consistently outperforms conventional feature selection approaches, and the proposed quantum architecture achieves competitive predictive performance through nonlinear feature enhancement while keeping the number of parameters very low. Through extensive experimentation on a MIMIC-IV cohort of cardiac arrest patients, QuanTiMedAI's quantum-enhanced architecture attains an AUROC of 0.852 using only 605 parameters, an improvement of approximately 2.9\% over a current state-of-the-art baseline for this task. A structured ablation study systematically validates the contribution of each architectural design choice. These results show that quantum-enhanced sequential modeling can exceed classical recurrent networks while using substantially fewer parameters.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06294
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TS-RAG: Retrieval Augmented Generation for Time Series Forecasting
2026-08-06 16:12:57Yixiong Xiao, Congxi Xiao, Jingbo ZhouAbstract
While deep learning models, particularly transformer-based architectures, have shown impressive performance in time series forecasting, the application of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) in this domain remains limited. Since RAG has proven effective in enhancing the capabilities of large language models by incorporating relevant external information, retrieving similar time series sequences as references might also improve accuracy in time series forecasting tasks. However, most time series models are constrained by limited training data, smaller parameter scales, and a lack of the extensive generative capabilities found in large language models. Simply concatenating reference sequences into the prompt, as done in language models, may not yield the expected results. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, TS-RAG, which leverages RAG to enhance forecasting performance. The framework introduces specially designed reference tokens to effectively fuse information from the input sequence with that from retrieved similar sequences, enabling a more robust capture of complex temporal dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance across several real-world forecasting benchmarks.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06223
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Is Self-Pretraining really useful to improve diagnosis in medical Time Series?
2026-08-06 14:53:23Omar Coser, Antonio Orvieto, Paolo Soda, Loredana ZolloAbstract
Inspired by recent evidence that transformer architectures benefit from Self-PreTraining (SPT) on long-context benchmarks, we investigate whether similar gains extend to multimodal, multivariate, and even simple univariate medical time series. Our objective is to assess the impact of SPT on the performance and scalability of transformer-based models across diverse medical applications, particularly under limited data conditions. We evaluate transformer architectures on three representative medical time-series tasks: rehabilitation robotics (Camargo dataset), stress detection (Non-EEG Stress), and Parkinson's disease detection (Gait Parkinson's Disease). Models are trained either from scratch or through SPT using four masking-based objectives designed to promote temporal and cross-modal representation learning, and we systematically vary model depth to examine how capacity interacts with pre-training benefits. Across datasets and configurations, SPT consistently improves classification accuracy by 0-6 percentage points depending on masking strategy, dataset and architecture, with gains observed not only in multivariate settings but also when models are restricted to simple univariate inputs. The improvements increase for deeper models that can better exploit the enriched temporal representations learned during pre-training. These findings indicate that SPT is a simple and general strategy that enhances transformer performance on medical time-series tasks without requiring task-specific architectural changes, supporting its potential to improve robustness and accuracy in data-limited clinical settings.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06122
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Dense-Cast: A lightweight ensemble of deep learning architectures for precipitation nowcasting
2026-08-06 14:26:21Gourav Jyoti Kalita, Hidam Kumarjit SinghAbstract
Proper short-term forecasting of precipitation is crucial in disaster management and preparedness. Nonetheless, the variability and nonlinearity of precipitation make short-term forecasting challenging for meteorologists. Moreover, capturing temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data is a challenge in precipitation nowcasting. In this article, we introduce a lightweight deep learning model for half-hourly precipitation nowcasting. This model has been designed by incorporating the DenseNet architecture, residual connections, and transformer encoders for effective precipitation nowcasting with reduced model parameters. The North-Eastern region of India has been selected as the area of interest for our study. The region receives the highest precipitation during the months of June-September due to the monsoon season. The proposed model takes the previous five time-steps of half-hourly precipitation as inputs and predicts the precipitation in the next two half-hours. The GPM IMERG precipitation dataset with a 30-minute cadence has been used in this study for training and testing the model. The proposed architecture achieves best MAE of 0.235 millimetres, RMSE of 0.735 millimetres, and KGE score of 0.816 at an interval of 30 minutes.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.06082
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Multivariate Time Series Forecasting needs Cross Variable Loss
2026-08-06 08:22:45Kuiye Ding, Yifan Hu, Hanchen Wang, Hao XueAbstract
Multivariate time series forecasting presents unique challenges because future variables often co-evolve under shared system dynamics. While existing studies mainly focus on cross-variable dependencies in historical observations, dependencies among future values are much less explored. Specifically, modern forecasting models largely follow the Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm, generating multi-step forecasts with point-wise objectives that do not explicitly constrain cross-variable structure. In this work, we show that the DF objective is mismatched in the presence of cross-variable and lagged dependencies, revealing an objective gap. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{C}ross-\textbf{V}ariable \textbf{Loss} (CvLoss), a plug-in structural regularizer that constrains forecast residuals on a cross-variable graph. CvLoss penalizes inconsistent edge-wise residual differences over forecast patches, encouraging consistency across both synchronous and asynchronous interactions. Our experiments show that CvLoss consistently improves competitive forecasting models, outperforms representative learning objectives, and is compatible with a variety of forecasting backbones.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05742
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SafeDivertor: Faithful Divertor Heat Flux Reconstruction from Macroscopic Plasma State Signals via Time-Frequency Prior Exploitation
2026-08-06 07:05:58Hao Si, Zehua Chen, Qingquan Yang, Xiao Wang, Dengdi Sun, Wanli Lyu, Gaoting Chen, Guosheng Xu, Hang Su, Jin Tang, Jun ZhuAbstract
Divertor heat-flux analysis is essential for understanding plasma-wall interactions and protecting plasma-facing components in magnetic-confinement fusion devices, while conventional infrared-based inversion is usually performed after discharge and requires heat-conduction modeling with device-specific material properties, divertor geometry, and boundary conditions. Rather than accelerating this conventional infrared-based inversion paradigm, we introduce a new online-oriented signal-based reconstruction paradigm that directly reconstructs time-resolved radial heat-flux profiles from multi-source macroscopic plasma-state signals available during discharge. To enable systematic study of this task, we construct \textbf{DivMPS2HF}, a multi-source discharge dataset that provides the data foundation and benchmark for signal-based divertor heat-flux reconstruction. We further propose \textbf{SafeDivertor}, a task-driven framework designed to address the key challenges of signal-based heat-flux reconstruction. It employs physical prior-aware initialization to provide radial-distribution guidance for target channels, input perturbation to reduce over-reliance on specific heterogeneous signals, spectral-aware reconstruction optimization to exploit time-frequency priors and preserve transient dynamics, and progressive training to stabilize the optimization of these complementary objectives. Experiments on DivMPS2HF demonstrate that SafeDivertor achieves the best overall performance among the evaluated time-series baselines across all five metrics, establishing a new performance benchmark for signal-based divertor heat-flux reconstruction. The source code will be released on this https URL
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05669
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CheMLFlow: An Open-Source Platform for Cheminformatics and Materials Informatics Applications
2026-08-05 15:08:29Brendan Smith, Susana Lopez-Moreno, Eric Dolores-Cuenca, Sangil Kim, Jose L. Mendoza-Cortes, Nijamudheen AbdulrahimanAbstract
CheMLFlow is an open-source platform for building and executing end-to-end, high-throughput, and agentic workflows for scientific and technological applications. CheMLFlow targets a common bottleneck in scientific machine learning development, where researchers often need to assemble data acquisition, curation, representation, model training, validation, screening, interpretation, and reporting into a reproducible pipeline, even when their primary research contribution concerns only one stage. CheMLFlow provides modular workflow components, ready-to-run reference pipelines, standardized artifacts, and evaluation outputs that reduce orchestration overhead and support benchmarking across methods and datasets. The platform is designed to be extensible, reproducible, and automation friendly, with pluggable representations and models, deterministic splits, explicit run artifacts, batch execution, and report generation. As scientific software increasingly moves toward agent assisted experimentation, CheMLFlow's configuration driven workflows and structured outputs also provide a practical interface for coding agents to help users construct experiments, inspect results, and summarize findings under human supervision. This article describes the system architecture, core workflows, and benchmarks that reach literature performance for quantum mechanical, physicochemical and bioactivity property prediction, and use cases involving time series datasets demonstrating applications beyond molecular chemistry datasets.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04942
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IMFACT: Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series via Intrinsic Mode Function Substitution
2026-08-05 12:43:33Udo Schlegel, Julian Rakuschek, Thomas Seidl, Andreas Holzinger, Tobias Schreck, Javier Del SerAbstract
Oscillatory signals, such as vibration, carry class-discriminative information in specific frequency bands; perturbing them in raw feature space for counterfactual analysis easily destroys their temporal structure and produces physically implausible results. In this work, we introduce IMFACT (IMF-based counterfACTuals), a model-agnostic framework for generating plausible counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers that operates in the decomposition space of Empirical Mode Decomposition. An input signal is split into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), and selected IMFs are progressively substituted with those of a Nearest Unlike Neighbour (NUN) until the classifier flips to the target class. We evaluate six IMF-selection strategies and a multi-NUN cycling extension on two UCR benchmarks (FaultDetectionA, FruitFlies). The variance-based strategy with three NUNs outperforms two prominent baseline techniques on reliability and plausibility metrics, while cycling across three NUNs yields the best proximity across both datasets.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04777
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Personalized Federated Sparse Adaptation of Time-Series Foundation Models
2026-08-05 11:01:47Priyanka Nihalchandani, Naman Srivastava, Varun Ojha, Pandarasamy ArjunanAbstract
Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID. However, a single parameter-sharing strategy is unlikely to serve all pretrained TSFMs or building clients: fully shared adapters can suppress building-specific temporal behavior, while fully local adaptation discards cross-building transfer. We propose a personalized federated sparse adaptation framework with a heterogeneous temporal mixture-of-experts (MoE) adapter placed after the pretrained TSFM representation. A sequence-level router maps each 168-hour context window to a top-$k$ subset of experts specialized for periodicity, long-range interactions, local variation, trend-residual structure, and multi-resolution behavior. We compare global FL, local training, and personalized FL variants with globally shared or client-private expert banks. Across 50 buildings and three TSFM backbones, personalization consistently outperforms Global FL-MoE and Local MoE, while the best sparse-adaptation strategy varies by backbone and metric. Routing behavior further reveals client-level expert specialization, expert concentration, and near-uniform routing across backbones, showing that federated TSFM adaptation should be both client-aware and backbone-aware.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04695
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Rethinking Reservoir Pruning: A Dynamical Perspective for Echo State Networks
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Echo State Networks (ESNs) offer an efficient framework for temporal prediction, but their randomly initialized reservoirs are often over-parameterized and dynamically redundant. Existing pruning methods largely rely on static connectivity or activation statistics, which may overlook neurons that shape input-driven state transitions. We propose Dynamical Mode Pruning (DMP), a reservoir pruning method that ranks neurons by their contribution to dominant transition modes obtained from a trajectory-averaged Jacobian Gramian. DMP removes low-impact units and retrains only the readout. Experiments on chaotic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that DMP improves or preserves forecasting accuracy while reducing redundant reservoir components. Our results suggest that dynamical influence is a useful criterion for reservoir refinement beyond static structural importance alone.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04593
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Just Repair: A Minimal Denoising Network for Time Series Anomaly Detection
2026-08-05 08:11:07Kadir-Kaan \"Ozer, Ren\'e Ebeling, Markus EnzweilerAbstract
Time series anomaly detectors have grown steadily more complex, incorporating attention mechanisms, adversarial training, and stochastic latent variables. Yet, it is unclear how much of this machinery detection actually requires. We test this question with JuRe (Just Repair), a deliberately minimal detector: a single depthwise-separable convolutional residual block trained to repair Gaussian-corrupted, channel-masked windows, scored at inference by a fixed structural discrepancy function with no learned parameters. JuRe ranks second on the TSB-AD multivariate benchmark (AUC-PR 0.404 over 180 series) and second on the UCR univariate archive (AUC-PR 0.201 over 250 series), where it leads all neural baselines. On TSB-AD, JuRe runs roughly $20\times$ faster than AxonAD, one of the top-ranked methods on that benchmark. Full-benchmark ablations show that removing Gaussian corruption reduces AUC-PR by 0.046, whereas AUC-PR across the evaluated architecture variants spans at most 0.017. A synthetic linear-manifold experiment provides partial evidence for this geometric interpretation: anomaly scores correlate with true off-manifold distance (Pearson $r=0.725$), and repair directions align increasingly with the true projection as anomaly magnitude grows. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with Holm correction find significant differences against 20 of 25 baselines, although dependence among series limits dataset-level interpretation. Code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.17388
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Beyond Linear Dynamics: Neural Bilinear Dynamical Models for Time Series Forecasting
2026-08-05 05:54:17Mengzhou Gao, Huangqian Yu, Pengfei JiaoAbstract
Time series in real-world applications are often generated by nonlinear dynamical systems, making accurate forecasting challenging. Existing approaches that explicitly model system dynamics typically rely on linear assumptions or Koopman-based linearizations, which may inadequately capture complex nonlinear behaviors and lead to error accumulation in long-horizon prediction. To address this limitation, we propose the Neural Bilinear Dynamical Model (NBDM), which models nonlinear system dynamics through a bilinear latent dynamical formulation. Specifically, NBDM leverages Koopman theory to lift the original nonlinear dynamics into a higher-dimensional latent space, where a bilinear dynamical model is constructed to characterize state evolution. To mitigate the approximation error introduced by bilinear representations, we further incorporate a parameterized error compensation term. Within this formulation, control inputs are explicitly integrated into the dynamics, using auxiliary variables when available and learned feedback signals otherwise. To handle scenarios with missing control inputs, we design a memory-enhanced controller that infers latent controls through multiplicative interactions between historical states and control signals. Experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that NBDM consistently outperforms competitive baselines in both given-control and missing-control settings, particularly for multi-step and long-horizon forecasting.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04471
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PRISM: Powerful Time Series to Image Representations for Multivariate Anomaly Detection
2026-08-04 16:59:28Mateusz Smendowski, Kamil Faber, Piotr Nawrocki, Nathalie Japkowicz, Roberto CorizzoAbstract
Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) underpins applications in predictive maintenance, finance, and cloud computing, however performance remains sensitive to representation choices, especially in multivariate settings. While transforming time series into images has shown success in forecasting and classification, it remains unclear how multivariate, high-dimensional series should be mapped to multi-channel images and whether vision backbones can match time-domain baselines in TSAD. We introduce PRISM, a plug-and-play meta-workflow enabling systematic construction and evaluation of image-based representations for multivariate TSAD. Our evaluation spanning over 7,000 experiments shows that well-designed PRISM configurations are competitive with 24 time-domain baselines, achieving the best VUS-PR on 10 of 14 datasets, with an average improvement of 41% over the best competing method on those datasets. Further, we identify channelization - how the channel dimension of multi-channel images is constructed - as a critical and previously understudied design dimension, and introduce MSM, a novel statistics-based scheme achieving 11-27% gains over PCA-based alternatives. Finally, ImageNet-pretrained encoders transfer effectively to TSAD, with frozen encoders retaining 92% of fine-tuned performance while training 1.8 times faster. Our code is available at: this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03926
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FinVerse: Financial Time-Series Benchmark
2026-08-04 07:32:42Jaehoon Lee, Jun Seo, Seunghan Lee, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Minjae Kim, Sungdong Yoo, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin AhnAbstract
As time-series foundation models have emerged, the need for benchmarks that can evaluate their forecasting ability in meaningful ways has become increasingly important. Existing time-series forecasting benchmarks provide useful standardized comparisons, but they often evaluate heterogeneous series with uniform error-based metrics. Strong performance under such metrics does not necessarily imply that a model's forecasts will support the best real-world decisions across domains. For example, in stock forecasting, correctly predicting whether a price will rise or fall can be more directly relevant to realized returns than minimizing point-wise forecast error alone. To this end, we introduce FinVerse, a finance-domain time-series forecasting benchmark that takes a first step toward more realistic evaluation. The released FinVerse data artifact contains 116,897 financial time series with 171.1M observations, of which 60,232 series with 17.4M observations are selected as evaluated targets based on their economic relevance to financial decisions. Unlike generic forecasting benchmarks that primarily emphasize uniform point-forecast or probabilistic accuracy, FinVerse defines 11 metric families comprising 78 evaluation metrics and assigns the most appropriate evaluation metrics to each individual time series based on its underlying economic meaning. Our analysis of 43 public time-series forecasting foundation models shows that strong performance under generic forecasting criteria does not necessarily translate into useful financial forecasts. This finding highlights the need for domain-aware benchmarks that evaluate models under objectives closer to real-world decision making.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03259
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CastFSR: A Fast--Slow--Reflect Agentic Reasoning Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting
2026-08-04 02:21:36Xiaoyu Tao, Mingyue Cheng, Bokai Pan, Chuang Jiang, Huanjian Zhang, Tian Gao, Yaguo Liu, Qi Liu, Enhong ChenAbstract
Time series forecasting is fundamental to decision-making in complex systems, where future dynamics are influenced not only by historical observations but also by evolving contextual features. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have extended forecasting beyond numerical extrapolation toward context-aware reasoning. However, existing approaches often lack explicit mechanisms to identify relevant contexts, reason about their impacts, and validate forecasts against temporal and domain constraints. In this work, we propose CastFSR, an agentic framework that formulates context-aware forecasting as a Fast--Slow--Reflect workflow. In fast thinking, CastFSR profiles observations and selects lightweight forecasters to construct a data-driven forecast prior. In slow deliberation, it retrieves contextual evidence, adaptively determines informative look-back windows, and reasons about how contexts reshape future dynamics. In reflection, it iteratively refines forecasts to ensure temporal, contextual, and domain consistency. CastFSR supports both training-free inference with off-the-shelf LLMs and efficient deployment through a two-stage SFT and reinforcement learning strategy that transfers its orchestration capability to compact LLMs. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that CastFSR consistently outperforms representative baselines. Our code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03031
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Global-Scale Self-Supervised Spatiotemporal Learning for NDVI Time-Series Reconstruction
2026-08-03 14:46:25Ang Li, Menghui Jiang, Xiaobin Guan, Dong Chu, Huanfeng ShenAbstract
Accurate and efficient reconstruction of cloud-contaminated and noise-corrupted NDVI time series remains a challenge in remote sensing. Deep learning provides a promising solution for modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies; however, its application is often limited by the difficulty of obtaining paired clear-sky and degraded NDVI data for identical spatiotemporal locations. To address this issue, we propose GloSSR, a Global-scale Self-supervised Spatiotemporal framework for NDVI Reconstruction. The framework constructs supervisory signals by artificially degrading relatively clean NDVI observations with realistic cloud contamination patterns, producing self-supervised training pairs that closely mimic real-world degradation. It further introduces an end-to-end spatiotemporal learning network that jointly captures long-range temporal dependencies and short-term spatiotemporal correlation through a bidirectional Transformer with a ConvLSTM architecture. A temporal-channel attention-based reconstruction module is incorporated to enhance informative features, while a spatiotemporal prior constraint is designed to preserve both fine-scale structures and long-term phenological trends during optimization. Extensive evaluations on MODIS NDVI data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework across both artificial and real-world scenarios. In artificial degraded-pixel reconstruction experiments, GloSSR consistently outperforms the comparison methods. Time-series analyses based on real observations further demonstrate that the proposed framework can accurately characterize vegetation dynamics and capture the key phenological states. Long-term vegetation trend analysis and the transferability analysis to AVHRR data validate the scalability of the framework and illustrate its broad applicability for large-scale environmental monitoring.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02322
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PhenoStitch: Training-Free Panoptic Crop Mapping from Satellite Image Time Series
2026-08-01 21:11:01Xuechen LiAbstract
Panoptic crop mapping requires both delineating individual agricultural parcels and assigning a crop type to each parcel from satellite image time series. Existing approaches typically rely on dense parcel-level annotations and task-specific model training, which limits their applicability to new regions and growing seasons. We introduce PhenoStitch, a panoptic crop-mapping pipeline that requires no task-specific gradient-based training. A frozen Segment Anything model first oversegments each patch into class-agnostic regions. For each region, optical NDVI and Sentinel-1 backscatter series are summarized by an analytic double-harmonic phenological signature. Adjacent regions are then merged into parcels by minimizing a Potts graph energy, and each parcel is classified by nearest-prototype matching using only (k) labeled parcels per class. A final topology-closure step produces the panoptic map. Under a matched budget of (k=20) parcels per class, corresponding to less than 1% of the available labels, PhenoStitch achieves 20.0 crop mIoU, 76.2 segmentation quality, and 6.2 panoptic quality on PASTIS-R under a 5-fold, 3-seed evaluation. It outperforms the evaluated frozen foundation-model, few-shot, and matched-budget supervised baselines under the same protocol, with a consistent ranking also observed on ZueriCrop. Ablation studies show that radar observations contribute the largest performance gain, while the graph-energy merge and compact phenological signature provide further improvements. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining label-free parcel delineation with few-shot phenological recognition for panoptic crop mapping under limited supervision.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00870
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TRACE-TS: Attribution-Grounded and Traceable Sensor-Language Reasoning for Human Activity Understanding
2026-07-31 18:26:17Sparsh Rastogi, Tanmay Kumar, Baiyu Chen, Jatin Bedi, Zechen Li, Flora D. SalimAbstract
Wearable sensors capture fine-grained motion patterns that support rich behavioral understanding, yet most existing methods reduce these signals to activity labels. Recent LM-based approaches generate natural-language explanations for sensor data, but their reasoning is weakly grounded in the underlying signal, leading to fluent yet unverifiable explanations. We introduce TRACE-TS (Traceable Reasoning with Attribution-Grounded Evidence), a framework for structured and signal-grounded reasoning over wearable time series. TRACE-TS uses attribution from an expert classifier to identify salient spatio-temporal sensor regions, uses them to construct DAG reasoning traces with explicit evidence provenance, and trains a compact language model to generate these traces through gated cross-attention over sensor memory tokens. At inference, the adapted model jointly outputs the activity prediction and its reasoning trace, without requiring attribution computation or teacher guidance. We introduce Semantic Node Match(SNM), an LLM-as-judge metric that diagnoses reasoning fidelity at the observation, inference, and synthesis levels, localizing hallucinated observations and broken evidence chains missed by standard NLG metrics. Across seven wearable benchmarks, TRACE-TS achieves the best average accuracy and F1 among all evaluated methods (84.43%/81.24%), and outperforms the best LLM-based baseline by 17.96% in F1. Our code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00200
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CENDRe: Concept Extraction with Natural Domain Representations
2026-07-31 16:56:27Antonia Holzapfel, Andres Felipe Posada Moreno, Sebastian TrimpeAbstract
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are widely used for time-series classification, but their deployment in critical domains requires understanding the temporal and spectral patterns that drive their predictions. Concept extraction (CE) methods identify such patterns by analyzing representations within the models' latent space. However, existing time-series CE methods have three limitations: they operate only in the time domain and overlook frequency features, predefine the number of concepts, and produce localizations misaligned with the regions the model uses. We address these limitations by proposing CENDRe, a concept extraction method for CNNs. It first discovers concepts by clustering per-timestep latent representations in two stages, where silhouette-guided aggregation selects the number of concepts automatically. Then, it localizes each concept through gradients of a presence score that contrasts the latent representations with their prototypes, producing masks that concentrate on the regions driving the concept. These gradients, propagated through a differentiable invertible mapping of the input such as a Fourier transform, yield localizations for the same concepts in the frequency domain. Finally, each concept receives a relevance score that quantifies its contribution to each class. On synthetic benchmarks, CENDRe achieves representation correctness comparable to state-of-the-art CE methods and significantly higher importance correctness. On real bearing-fault data, CENDRe extracts the frequency bands driving the model's predictions, located in regions commonly inspected for fault diagnosis, producing evidence to assess the model that time-domain CE methods cannot.
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https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.29621
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TFGformer: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Time-Frequency Graph Learning and Covariate Fusion
2026-07-31 14:24:26Yu Sun, Yuan Chang, Xiaohou Shi, Yan SunAbstract
Large-scale multivariate time series from heterogeneous IoT sensors demand accurate long-term forecasting for resource scheduling and predictive maintenance. While recent time series foundation models exhibit strong generalization, they rely on static parametric knowledge and lack dynamic access to external historical patterns during inference. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) offers a potential remedy, yet its application to time series forecasting is challenged by magnitude variations across heterogeneous sources and the mismatch between historical similarity and future consistency. We propose CrossRAG, a retrieval-augmented forecasting framework that integrates Shape-Aware Memory (SAM) with RevIN normalization for magnitude-robust shape-level retrieval, Future-Consistent Contrastive (FCC) learning to distinguish informative references from hard negatives with similar history but divergent futures, and Cross-Attention Temporal Fusion (CATF) to fuse retrieved historical--future reference pairs into the backbone's representations at the representation level. Experiments on seven public benchmarks show that CrossRAG consistently outperforms both parametric-only baselines and existing retrieval-augmented forecasting methods.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.29459
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