Time_Series
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Twice Upon a Time: Complementary Representations for Time-Series Reasoning
2026-10-15 17:52:18Hedi Zisling, Liran Nochumsohn, Ilan Naiman, Mihir Parmar, Omri AzencotAbstract
Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) enable language-based understanding and reasoning over temporal data, yet a fundamental question remains: what information should their time-series representations preserve, and what variation should they factor out? Existing TSLMs typically expose the language model to a single representation, imposing a fixed inductive bias across downstream tasks. We instead introduce complementary representations as a design principle for time-series reasoning. Our model combines two visual views: line plots preserve absolute measurements and the observed coordinate frame, while normalized delay embeddings factor out positive amplitude rescaling and offsets while exposing temporal structure. Dedicated visual encoders integrate both views into a shared language model through visual tokens and multi-level feature fusion. Evaluation-time interventions verify that the two views exhibit distinct invariance profiles, while single-view ablations show that their combination is particularly beneficial beyond basic perception, with the large gains in prediction and reasoning. Built on Qwen3-VL-8B, our dual-view model improves overall TSRBench accuracy from 44.5% with line plots alone to 53.2%, substantially exceeding the strongest evaluated dedicated TSLM baseline at 36.7%. It further achieves 89.9% accuracy on TSExam and 86.8% numerical accuracy on multivariate ChatTS alignment. Together, these results demonstrate that complementary representations provide an effective design principle for general-purpose TSLMs, enabling models to exploit temporal structure without sacrificing access to the original measurement frame.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.22327
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The Last Remote Sensing Model Built by Humans? Casting Any Earth Observation Task as Recursive Self-Improvement
2026-10-15 16:56:46Sijie Zhao, Zeqi Zhou, Heli Qi, Xuanchao Fu, Zhuo Zheng, Junshi Xia, Junjue Wang, Weihao Xuan, Naoto YokoyaAbstract
Earth observation (EO) models are still built by hand. For each new task, experts design a training recipe and tune it against a benchmark. We show that this loop can be handed to an agent. Any verifiable task can be cast as a harness and a verifier, where the harness defines what the agent may use and the verifier defines what counts as success. Every EO task can be made verifiable, through labeled benchmarks, independent sensors, physical models or the repeated observation of the same place. Given only these two components, a general-purpose coding agent builds the EO model and improves it recursively on its own outputs. Settings long treated as separate research problems, from learning with a handful of labels to adapting across domains, become choices of harness and verifier. On six EO benchmarks spanning optical, SAR and multispectral time-series imagery, with outputs that range from land-cover maps and ship instances to canopy heights and answers about large images, agent-built models surpass the state of the art on every one, and on land-cover mapping, they do so from 11% of the training labels. This establishes a new paradigm for EO, in which people design harnesses and verifiers and agents build the models, so EO models improve as agents do.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18845
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Retrieval Over Training: Similarity search-based Model Selection for Time Series Anomaly Detection
2026-10-15 11:07:21Christos Panourgias, Roberto Stanzione, Adrien Petralia, Themis Palpanas, Paul BoniolAbstract
Anomaly detection is a fundamental task for time-series analytics, with important implications for the downstream performance of many applications. Despite the large number of anomaly detection methods proposed in the literature, recent benchmark studies have shown that no single detector performs best across highly heterogeneous time series. Therefore, a practical and scalable solution is to develop a model-selection method that, for a given time series, selects the anomaly detector most likely to perform well. Nevertheless, the model selection approaches proposed in the literature suffer from a significant drop in accuracy when applied in Out-of-Distribution (OOD) settings. In this paper, we tackle the aforementioned limitation and propose RAMSAD, a retrieval-based framework for model selection in time-series anomaly detection. Given a new time series, our method queries a knowledge base of previously observed instances, retrieves the top-k most similar series, and transfers detector recommendations from their performance profiles. The framework can operate with standard similarity measures as well as embedding-based representations. Our results show that RAMSAD outperforms existing baselines in In-Distribution (ID) settings and is the most robust selector in OOD, where, when selecting a small subset of detectors, it matches or exceeds ensembles that run the entire detector pool, at a fraction of their cost. Overall, we demonstrate that similarity-based retrieval constitutes a strong and efficient foundation for model selection in time-series anomaly detection.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.20243
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PocketTSLM: Deploying an On-Device Soft-Prompt Time-Series Language Model for Privacy-Preserving Smartphone Reasoning
2026-10-15 05:56:53Max Rosenblattl, Nikhil Krishnaswamy, Leon Nissen, Manuel Milling, Nicolas Zumarraga, Ning Wang, Thomas Kaar, Robert Jakob, Bj\"orn W. Schuller, Elgar Fleisch, Patrick Langer, Paul SchmiedmayerAbstract
Consumer phones and wearables increasingly collect physiological time-series data, yet most mobile systems treat these streams as summaries or text rather than as temporal evidence. This representation is poorly matched to personal health systems that need to retrieve, route, or summarize sensor evidence while preserving temporal structure. Cloud-hosted time-series language models avoid smartphone limits, but they repeatedly move sensitive physiology off the device and add latency and per-query compute cost. Mobile model alternatives that aggregate time-series data into statistical features or serialize raw samples as text either compress temporal structure or exhaust the context and memory budgets of small on-device models. We present PocketTSLM, a mobile-native deployment of OpenTSLM SoftPrompt, the soft-prompt variant of the OpenTSLM time-series language model. PocketTSLM runs fully on a consumer smartphone by injecting encoded time-series windows as embeddings instead of tokenizing time series as text. A numerical parity protocol verifies identical greedy-decoded token sequences between the Swift port and a Python reference using Apple's MLX machine-learning framework. Answers also match the PyTorch reference, although rationale wording can differ. An on-device context-economics benchmark compares the soft-prompt path with a text-serialized baseline on the same backbone. In our benchmark format, soft-prompting uses approximately 12 times fewer time-series tokens and reduces prompt-prefill cost. PocketTSLM processes 30-second Sleep-EDF electroencephalography clips for sleep staging and a 1,000-sample (10 s) 12-lead electrocardiogram clip from ECG-QA. In comparison, text-serialized baselines exceed the phone's context or memory budget at longer time-series windows. All inference runs entirely on the device, with no health data transmitted during inference.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21308
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TimeCap: A Scalable Open-Source Pipeline for Captioning Wearable Health Time-Series Data
2026-10-15 05:10:01Max Rosenblattl, Milana Gurbanova, Karl Aurel Deck, Narayan Schuetz, Thomas Kaar, Manuel Milling, Nicolas Zumarraga, Ning Wang, Kelly W. Zhang, Anders Johnson, Robert Jakob, Bj\"orn W. Schuller, Elgar Fleisch, Daniel Seung Kim, Allan Lawrie, Patrick Langer, Maxwell A. Xu, Euan Ashley, Paul SchmiedmayerAbstract
Time-series data generated continuously across industrial, environmental, and especially health domains produce multimodal signals whose scale and heterogeneity make their processing and interpretation particularly challenging. Time-Series Language Models (TSLMs) promise scalable interpretation of these signals, yet remain bottlenecked by a fundamental lack of text-annotated time series pairs that are signal-grounded, reproducible, and extensible across modalities and schemas. Existing paired corpora are either closed or limited in scale and modality coverage. Annotation with large language models could scale them up, but its outputs cannot be regenerated exactly, which prevents others from re-deriving, extending, or auditing the resulting corpus. To address this, we release TimeCap, an open deterministic captioning pipeline with three reusable extractor tiers and a cross-channel synthesis layer that operates directly on the signal with no language model in the loop, extensible to new schemas by writing channel definitions alone. This positions TimeCap as a reproducible mechanism for future dataset generation rather than a one-off release. Applying TimeCap to OpenMHC, the MyHeart Counts wearable dataset, yields MHCap, the largest open caption layer for multimodal wearable time-series data. MHCap spans 19 Apple HealthKit channels and 7,005,763 captions over 908,944 person-days. To showcase the impact of the corpus, we train OpenTSLM, a time-series language model, on MHCap and benchmark on health-outcome prediction. Caption-augmented training (OpenTSLM-Cap) outperforms a label-only baseline on 29 of 32 per-user binary evaluations across 8 tasks.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21274
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DST-Net: Decomposed Spatio-Temporal Network for Time Series Forecasting
2026-10-15 02:28:22Yaohua Zha, Hai Wu, Shu-Tao XiaAbstract
Series decomposition has emerged as a widely acknowledged paradigm in deep time series forecasting models. However, existing approaches predominantly employ a homogeneous modeling strategy for all subsequences, thereby overlooking the distinct inductive biases inherent in different components. We identify that the trend component exhibits dominant spatial coupling across channels but carries significant temporal redundancy, whereas the seasonal component is characterized by local temporal evolution but remains susceptible to attention distraction. To address this, we propose a novel disentangled architecture that tailors specific modeling strategies to align with the intrinsic properties of each component. For the trend branch, we design a Latent Graph Block, employing latent graph modeling to capture global topological dependencies and system-wide co-movements. Conversely, for the seasonal branch, we introduce a Gaussian Multi-scale Attention mechanism to mitigate attention distraction. By injecting learnable Gaussian priors, we impose structural constraints that compel the model to focus on multi-granular local contexts, effectively filtering out global noise and accurately capturing local evolutionary phases. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21123
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Cross-View Time-Frequency Diffusion for Extreme-Aware Time-Series Generation
2026-10-14 17:05:28Lin Jiang, Rongchao Xu, Guang WangAbstract
Generating realistic time-series requires faithfully reproducing rare but high-impact extreme events. Existing approaches often rely on specialized representations or extreme-focused training objectives, which may restrict the diversity of captured extremes or compromise overall distributional fidelity. We propose Cross-View Time-Frequency Diffusion (CrossTF), a framework that exploits discrepancies between time- and frequency-view denoisers for extreme-aware time-series generation. Our key empirical finding is extreme-sensitive cross-view asymmetry: moving along the direction connecting the two views' clean-sample estimates substantially changes extreme fidelity while having limited effects on overall generation quality. We further identify a late-stage cross-view window in which this discrepancy stabilizes and cross-view adjustments have a particularly strong effect on extreme fidelity. These findings motivate a staged optimization strategy in CrossTF: after training and freezing both denoisers, it only needs to learn step-specific fusion parameters within this window using an Extreme Value Theory-based objective under an energy-distance constraint. This formulation supports interpolation between and extrapolation beyond the view-specific estimates while limiting degradation in overall generation quality. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets against 11 baselines show that CrossTF improves extreme fidelity by 26.1% and overall performance by 7.4% relative to the strongest baselines. These results highlight cross-view discrepancy as an effective basis for low-dimensional optimization in extreme-aware time-series generation.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17407
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MMTA: Benchmarking Multimodal Temporal Analysis with Time Series, Text, and Vision
2026-10-14 05:39:34Ziyang Zhang, Shenyi Li, Yilin Wang, Ziyun Cui, Bowen Zhou, Wen Wu, Chao ZhangAbstract
Time-series analysis is increasingly studied in multimodal settings, yet most benchmarks pair temporal signals with text or with visualizations derived from the same signal. This leaves open whether multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can integrate time series with real-world visual evidence. We introduce MMTA (multimodal temporal analysis), a benchmark of tri-modal tasks with diverse cross-modal complementarity patterns among time series, text, and vision. MMTA spans nine domains -- robotics, autonomous driving, human action, manufacturing, AR assistance, healthcare, recommendation, finance, and climate -- under video+TS and image+TS layouts, with a 3,524-sample test split covering classification and forecasting. The benchmark standardizes heterogeneous real-world sources into a shared schema with domain-specific prompts, provenance documentation, and success-weighted metrics that penalize both wrong answers and failed generations. Evaluating eight open-source and proprietary MLLMs reveals a shared bottleneck: representing time series as text creates very long token sequences and weakens fine-grained alignment with visual evidence, especially in long-video settings. We then introduce TimeOmni-v, a multimodal LLM extension with a dedicated time-series encoder, temporal positional alignment, modality-aware token layout, and a forecasting head. TimeOmni-v improves long-video classification and time-series inference efficiency, showing that MMTA not only exposes representation and grounding failures but also motivates targeted model design.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17856
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Agronomic Characterization and Time-Series UAV Phenotyping to Support Field Pea Breeding in Iowa
2026-10-13 20:21:52Yanben Shen, Joscif Raigne, Asheesh Singh, Arti SinghAbstract
Field pea has gained interest in the Midwest U.S. and has the potential to benefit Iowa cropping systems. This study evaluated 17 accessions and 7 Canadian varieties for agronomic and seed yield performance. This study found that PI accession trials exhibit genetic diversity in phenology and canopy traits, whereas the Canadian elite varieties demonstrated great yield potential under Iowa conditions. The accession genotypes matured between 75 DAP (late June) and 95 DAP (late July) across six site-years. The top-yielding Canadian varieties averaged 1961 kg/ha across two site-years. To comprehensively assess field pea performance, this study extracted time-series Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)-derived traits, assessed UAV-derived traits, and evaluated their correlations with multiple agronomic traits and yield. The results found that UAV-derived time-series canopy area was the most yield-relevant trait (r = 0.63) among all UAV-derived canopy features, vegetation indices, and manually collected measurements. Compared with yield, UAV-derived canopy area showed higher selection reliability (H2 = 0.87, CV = 13.46%), making it suitable for phenotypic selection and accelerating Midwest field pea breeding programs. This study identifies useful UAV-derived features for pea breeding and demonstrates the value of integrating diverse germplasm, elite commercial varieties, and time-series UAV phenotyping. Combining genetic variation from the accession trial with the yield potential of high-performing commercial varieties provides valuable breeding materials and phenotyping strategies for developing locally adapted, high-yielding field pea varieties for future production in the Midwest.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19154
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Focus, Align, and Diffuse: Time-Series-Aware Keyframe Diffusion for Cardiac Dynamic Synthesis from Sparse Observations
2026-10-13 18:49:36Junkai Liu, Haofan Wu, Nay Aung, Joao A. C. Lima, Steffen E. Petersen, Le ZhangAbstract
Dense cardiac dynamics are essential for assessing cardiac function, yet in practice clinicians often observe only extremely sparse measurements. However, recovering full dynamics from such sparsity is a highly ill-posed problem due to the lack of temporal cues. While auxiliary time-series signals like ECG provide physiological guidance, effectively exploiting them is challenging due to the cross-modal representation gap and phase misalignment. In this work, we present CardioFAD, a Focus--Align--Diffuse paradigm that reformulates sparse cardiac dynamic synthesis as a recoverability--alignability anchor discovery problem. Our core insight is that resolving extreme temporal ambiguity requires a compact set of anchor states that are both sufficient to recover the visual trajectory and reliable for ECG--visual alignment. We therefore learn motion-salient keyframes under two complementary principles: trajectory sufficiency, which preserves trajectory-critical intra-modal motion content, and anchor alignment, which promotes consistent inter-modal correspondence at these anchors. We implement the Focus and Align modules optimized by the two aspects. Diffuse then performs two-stage generation by first synthesizing keyframes and subsequently interpolating the remaining frames. Extensive experiments on cardiac MRI and echocardiography videos demonstrate superior visual quality, temporal coherence, and improved functional consistency under the extreme one-shot regime.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19050
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FALLNEST: Dual-Domain Dataset Condensation of Imbalanced IMU Data for Wearable Fall Detection
2026-10-13 12:25:20Rashi Niyas P, Ritika Jain, Hitika TiwariAbstract
Wearable fall detection is hampered by rare fall events, scarce labeled IMU data, and the cost of training deep models on large, imbalanced corpora. Existing methods either rely on hand-crafted features with shallow classifiers, which limits learning from raw signals, or train deep networks on full datasets that require re-sampling to counter class skew and demand substantial data and compute. To address this, we propose a novel Fall detection framework via Normalized-gradient and Embedding matched Synthetic Time-frequency condensation, dubbed FALLNEST, a data-centric approach that distills large, imbalanced IMU datasets into tiny, class-balanced synthetic training sets. Building on dual-domain time-series condensation (CondTSC), FALLNEST introduces a fall-specific 7-channel input with accelerometer vector magnitude, class-balanced K-Means initialization, and normalized gradient matching with gradient clipping, combined with MMD-based embedding alignment and multi-view Fourier-domain augmentation, so that class balance arises from the condensed set itself rather than from re-sampling. We evaluate on SisFall, KFall, and MobiFall using strict subject-wise splits and naturally imbalanced test sets, reporting accuracy, Macro-F1, and PR-AUC over five seeds. A 102K-parameter TinyCNN trained on only 32 to 146 synthetic windows (about only 1% of the training windows) reaches 93.5-95.8% mean accuracy and 0.89-0.98 PR-AUC, with standard deviations of 1.0-1.7% in accuracy, demonstrating the efficacy of our approach.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18260
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TStruct: Learning Shared Temporal Structures for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting
2026-10-13 07:24:58Yangze Li, Zhengyang Zhou, Qihe Huang, Pengkun Wang, Binwu Wang, Yang WangAbstract
Long-term time series forecasting requires temporal dependency modeling that remains stable and generalizable under temporal distribution shifts. However, real-world time series are often noisy and non-stationary, making deep learning models prone to fitting incidental temporal interactions in the training data. A key question is whether there exist temporal relationship structures that recur across different temporal positions and variables. We analyze temporal relationship matrices on commonly used time series datasets and find that samples from different temporal positions and different variables exhibit shared dominant temporal relationship structures. This indicates that temporal relationship structures contain patterns that recur stably across samples and variables. To learn such shared structures, we propose \textbf{T}emporal \textbf{Struct}ure Network (\textbf{TStruct}), a simple yet effective network for directly learning shared and generalizable temporal dependencies. Specifically, TStruct directly parameterizes a set of shared temporal dependency matrices and generates normalized combination weights using dynamic sample information and static variable priors. These weights represent a soft allocation of each sample-variable pair over shared temporal dependency structures, enabling the model to generate adaptive temporal dependency matrices under shared structural constraints, rather than fitting incidental interactions in a fully unconstrained manner. Notably, this simple structure-aware design consistently outperforms several strong baselines across all datasets, achieving superior accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17864
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GIFT-Eval-CTX: A Benchmark For Contextual Forecasting Model Evaluation
2026-10-13 06:21:50Xu Liu, Hanshu Yan, Taha Aksu, Quang Pham, Zhongzheng Qiao, Jun Hao Liew, Silvio Savarese, Doyen Sahoo, Junnan LiAbstract
Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17794
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Agentic4PDM: Host-Governed Evidence Admissibility for Industrial Fault Diagnosis
2026-10-13 06:14:27Nam V. Nguyen, Hoang Van Truong, Hieu D. D., Duy Khuong Nguyen, Quang Pham, Tung KieuAbstract
We study industrial fault diagnosis as a classification task that assigns sensor time-series windows to predefined health states or fault types. Scarce labels and changing operating conditions make repeated training of specialized classifiers costly. Yet structures such as periodicity, trends, and transients can remain diagnostically informative and be examined through reusable analytical tools. LLM agents can select and interpret these tools, but fixed rules or training-derived guidance may not resolve each signal's ambiguity, while unconstrained interpretation may overstate weak or conflicting results. We introduce Agentic4PDM, a framework that separates adaptive investigation from control over evidence use. LLM agents compare each signal with labeled references from every candidate class, identify unresolved distinctions, and propose follow-up measurements. A deterministic software controller, called the host, enforces contract-checked gated adjudication (CCGA): it checks requests, requires commitment to a complete tool batch before results are observed, and assigns evidence roles based on tool checks against labeled references. These roles distinguish corroborative support from advisory information. The Judge Agent proposes a diagnosis, while the controller checks protocol compliance and records the investigation. Agentic4PDM supports training-free diagnosis using pretrained representations and labeled references without task-specific diagnostic models, and a standard setting that additionally investigates trained-model predictions. Experiments on selected bearing and motor diagnosis challenges and an unfiltered industrial test set supplied by our customer show gains in aggregate macro F1 over the evaluated diagnostic and agentic baselines. Ablations further support the value of the governed workflow.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17786
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An FPGA-Based Spiking Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Pattern Learning and Classification
2026-10-12 22:26:18Jingang Jin, Yue Ma, Zhenhang Zhang, Qinru QiuAbstract
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are promising for energy-efficient spatiotemporal pattern recognition at the edge, but efficient deployment and on-device adaptation require specialized hardware. In this work, we present an FPGA implementation of multilayer SNNs for spatiotemporal pattern classification, in which both inference and training take place on the same hardware. Our design adopts a temporal-forward-only training algorithm that avoids the memory and latency overhead associated with traditional Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT). A mixed-precision scheme balances training stability with resource efficiency, and architectural optimization maximizes hardware and memory utilization. We further identify and resolve hazards that arise when inference and learning share the same memory, including port conflicts between the forward and backward access patterns and read-after-write dependencies in floating-point potential accumulation. Experimental evaluations on MNIST and five multivariate time-series classification datasets demonstrate that, with fully on-chip training, our SNN model achieves accuracy comparable to SNN or LSTM trained with BPTT. Compared to CPU and GPU based implementations, our FPGA design delivers 2.5 to 6 times higher throughput while consuming an order of magnitude less energy per sample.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17463
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Naga: Vedic Encoding for Deep State Space Models
2026-10-12 15:12:47Melanie Schaller, Nick Janssen, Bodo RosenhahnAbstract
This paper presents Naga, a deep State Space Model (SSM) encoding approach inspired by structural concepts from Vedic mathematics. The proposed method introduces a bidirectional representation for time series by jointly processing forward and time-reversed input sequences. These representations are then combined through an element-wise (Hadamard) interaction, resulting in a Vedic-inspired encoding that enhances the model's ability to capture temporal dependencies across distant time steps. We evaluate Naga on multiple long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) benchmarks, including ETTh1, ETTh2, ETTm1, ETTm2, Weather, Traffic, and ILI. The experimental results show that Naga outperforms 28 current state of the art models and demonstrates improved efficiency compared to existing deep SSM-based approaches. The findings suggest that incorporating structured, Vedic-inspired decomposition can provide an interpretable and computationally efficient alternative for long-range sequence modeling.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.13510
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ChronoScribe: Semantic-Numerical Specialization for Instruction-Driven Time Series Forecasting
2026-10-12 08:03:26Yuchen Jiao, Miao Zhang, Yuxuan Liu, Chengxi LiAbstract
Recent advances in instruction-driven time series forecasting highlight a fundamental tension: systems must simultaneously master natural-language instruction following and precise numerical prediction. Current approaches often force a compromise. Large language models (LLMs) can interpret unstructured requests but may be inaccurate when asked to produce forecast values directly, whereas time series foundation models (TSFMs) provide numerical forecasts but typically require structured inputs specifying the target series, context window, and horizon. We present ChronoScribe, which applies semantic-numerical specialization to this workflow. A LoRA-adapted LLM proposes an execution path and context length; deterministic rules resolve the executable configuration. On the specialist path, a frozen TSFM produces quantile trajectories for the task-specified horizon. Deterministic trajectory summaries condition the response, while the LLM neither generates nor revises predicted values. We evaluate a Qwen3.5-9B--Chronos-2 implementation across 23 evaluation dimensions and 30 public datasets against eleven proprietary direct LLMs and three open TSFMs. ChronoScribe has the lowest error on sMAPE, MASE, WAPE, RMSE, and MAE among all evaluated systems, including fixed-context controls. Across these metrics, even the lowest direct-LLM error remains 2.0--2.7 times the corresponding ChronoScribe error. At the system level, ChronoScribe achieves a Task-Level Score (TLS) of 65.5, 10.6 points above the strongest direct-LLM baseline. The results support ChronoScribe's division of labor, in which the LLM handles interpretation, configuration, and communication while the TSFM handles numerical forecasting.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16345
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OneShot: Label-Efficient Detector Weighting for Time Series Anomaly Detection
2026-10-12 05:49:42Seunghan Lee, Jun Seo, Jaehoon Lee, Junhyeok Kang, Sangjun Han, Sungdong Yoo, Minjae Kim, Tae Yoon Lim, Dongwan Kang, Hwanil Choi, Soonyoung Lee, Wonbin AhnAbstract
Time series (TS) anomaly detection (AD) lacks a universal detector, with the best choice determined by the series rather than by the algorithm. Existing methods therefore either select one detector for each series or average a pool of them. However, both assume that no label ever arrives, while a deployed monitor does receive them, since an operator confirms the alarms it raises. In this paper, we propose ONESHOT, which uses a single confirmed anomaly to weight the pool rather than to choose one detector from it. Specifically, we score each detector on the confirmed anomaly, and those scores become the weights of a soft mixture over the whole pool. We show that a single confirmed anomaly is enough to come close to the best detector for the series. Across 152 univariate and 73 multivariate series, ONESHOT outperforms the strongest single detector, averaging the whole pool, and even picking the best detector on the confirmed event. Code is available at: this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16219
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Constructed regional photovoltaic generation fields improve ultra-short-term distributed solar forecasting
2026-10-12 03:17:25Dayin Chen, Xiaodan Shi, Xin Xu, Zhongyue Su, Shibo Zhu, Dongxiao Zhang, Yuntian Chen, Jinyue YanAbstract
Ultra-short-term forecasting of densely distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems remains challenging because external meteorological and satellite products may not adequately resolve rapid local variations, while heterogeneous PV systems exhibit different generation responses under similar atmospheric conditions. Meanwhile, dense PV fleets provide spatially distributed measurements that reveal regional generation dynamics. Here, we reformulate fleet-level PV forecasting from modeling discrete station time series to predicting explicit, spatially structured regional PV generation fields. We develop SatPV-Field, a regional-to-local forecasting framework that transforms distributed PV measurements into image-like generation fields and models their spatiotemporal evolution. By combining historical PV fields with satellite-derived future shortwave radiation guidance and meteorological forecasts, the framework predicts future regional generation states, which subsequently provide location-specific guidance for individual-station forecasting. Experiments involving 496 distributed PV systems, including 446 source stations and 50 held-out target stations, demonstrate that these regional fields can be effectively forecast and used to improve station-level predictions. The proposed approach reduces station-level MAE by approximately 10.0% relative to the best-performing single-station temporal baseline and by 2.5% relative to a graph-based regional forecasting approach using the same source fleet. These findings establish an explicit spatial-field modeling paradigm that connects regional generation dynamics with individual-site forecasting.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.16110
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Learning Multimodal Sensor Fusion with JEPA Representations for Breathing Activity and Pose Recognition
2026-10-11 20:13:12Yunxiang Luo, Constantino \'Alvarez Casado, Xiaoting Wu, Nhi Nguyen, Le Nguyen, Manuel Lage Ca\~nellas, Miguel Bordallo L\'opezAbstract
Predictive video representations do not by themselves specify how a multimodal system should handle missing sensors. We transfer frozen V-JEPA2 features to a set of heterogeneous sensors comprised by RGB video, depth video, and radar time series. A shared fusion model uses modality queries, fixed sensor slots, and explicit availability to classify breathing activity and pose from all seven non-empty sensor subsets. The contribution is a controlled evaluation of subset supervision, pooling capacity, and representation transfer on 39 OMuSense-23 subjects with five subject-group folds and three seeds. With matched downstream parameter counts, the final model reaches recording-level activity macro-F1 of $75.23%\pm0.60$ averaged across seven subsets. Supervising all subsets in each batch improves the matched query-pooling control by 1.923 percentage points (conditional 95% subject-bootstrap interval [0.647, 3.209]), while query pooling shows no clear advantage over matched mean pooling under balanced supervision. Radar probes support transfer beyond pooled wavelet pixels, 64-token inference approximately preserves mean activity performance, and the tested Consensus-JEPA loss adds no measured benefit against its exact control.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.15891
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