Time_Series
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COTCAgent: Preventive Consultation via Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion
2026-05-14 16:17:35Zihan Deng, Xiaozhen Zhong, Chuanzhi XuAbstract
As large language models empower healthcare, intelligent clinical decision support has developed rapidly. Longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) provide essential temporal evidence for accurate clinical diagnosis and analysis. However, current large language models have critical flaws in longitudinal EHR reasoning. First, lacking fine-grained statistical reasoning, they often hallucinate clinical trends and metrics when quantitative evidence is textually implied, biasing diagnostic inference. Second, non-uniform time series and scarce labels in longitudinal EHR hinder models from capturing long-range temporal dependencies, limiting reliable clinical reasoning. To address the above limitations, this work presents the Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion Agent (COTCAgent), a hierarchical reasoning framework for longitudinal electronic health records. It consists of three core modules. The Temporal-Statistics Adapter (TSA) converts analytical plans into executable code for standardized trend output. The Chain-of-Thought Completion (COTC) layer leverages a symptom-trend-disease knowledge base with weighted scoring to evaluate disease risk, while the bounded completion module acquires structured evidence through standardized inquiries and iterative scoring constraints to ensure rigorous reasoning. By decoupling statistical computation, feature matching, and language generation, the framework eliminates reliance on complex multi-modal inputs and enables efficient longitudinal record analysis with lower computational overhead. Experimental results show that COTCAgent powered by Baichuan-M2 achieves 90.47% Top-1 accuracy on the self-built dataset and 70.41% on HealthBench, outperforming existing medical agents and mainstream large language models. The code is available at this https URL.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.15016
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Exploring Vision-Language Models for Online Signature Verification: A Zero-Shot Capability Study
2026-05-14 13:53:28Marta Robledo-Moreno, Ruben Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben Tolosana, Javier Ortega-GarciaAbstract
Recent advancements in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in general visual reasoning, yet their applicability to rigorous biometric tasks remains unexplored. This work presents an exploratory study evaluating the zero-shot performance of state-of-the-art VLMs (GPT-5.2 and Gemini 2.5 Pro) on the Signature Verification Challenge (SVC) benchmark. To enable visual processing, raw kinematic time-series are converted into static images, encoding pressure information into stroke opacity whenever available in the source data. Furthermore, we introduce a scoring protocol that extracts latent token probabilities to compute robust biometric scores. Experimental results reveal a significant performance dichotomy dependent on signal quality and forgery type. In random forgery scenarios, the zero-shot VLM achieves exceptional discrimination, with GPT-5.2 reaching an Equal Error Rate of 0.32% in mobile tasks, outperforming supervised state-of-the-art systems. Conversely, in skilled forgery scenarios, where the task is more challenging because both signatures are almost identical, the results are significantly worse, and a critical "Rationalization Trap" emerges: chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning degrades performance as the model produces kinematic hallucinations to justify forgery artifacts as natural variability.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14845
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NeuroAtlas: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Clinical EEG and Brain-Computer Interfaces
2026-05-14 11:13:41Konstantinos Kontras, Trui Osselaer, Stylianos G. Mouslech, Angeliki-Ilektra Karaiskou, Guido Gagliardi, Thomas Strypsteen, Mohammad Hossein Badiei, Anku Rani, Maarten Vanmarcke, Miguel Bhagubai, Chanakya Ekbote, Jaedong Hwang, Christos Chatzichristos, Paul Pu Liang, Maarten De VosAbstract
Foundation models (FMs) promise to extract unified representations that generalize across downstream tasks. They have emerged across fields, including electroencephalography (EEG), but it is less clear how effective they are in this particular field. Published evaluations differ in datasets, in the EEG-specific preprocessing that might influence reported results, and in the reported metrics, frequently obscuring the clinical relevance in EEG. We introduce NeuroAtlas, the largest EEG benchmark to date: 42 datasets and 260k hours covering clinical EEG (epilepsy, sleep medicine, brain age estimation) and brain-computer interfaces, and include multiple datasets per task along with bespoke clinical evaluation metrics. Besides evaluating EEG-FMs with respect to supervised baselines, we present results from generic time-series FMs. We report three findings. First, EEG-specific FMs do not consistently outperform time-series FMs, which have neither EEG-focused architectures nor been pretrained on EEG. Second, standard machine learning metrics are insufficient to assess clinical utility: thus, we thoroughly evaluate more appropriate measures such as the quality of event-level decision-making, hypnogram-derived features, and the brain-age gap in the domains of epilepsy, sleep, and brain age, respectively. Third, model rankings and performance can vary substantially within domains. We conclude that pretrained models perform largely on par, with only narrow advantages for a few, and that current models do not yet deliver on the promise of an out-of-the-box unified EEG model. NeuroAtlas exposes this gap and provides the datasets and metrics for the next generation of unified EEG FMs.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14698
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Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting
2026-05-14 05:12:13Sarkar Snigdha Sarathi Das, Palash Goyal, Mihir Parmar, Nanyun Peng, Vishy Tirumalashetty, Chun-Liang Li, Rui Zhang, Jinsung Yoon, Tomas PfisterAbstract
Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.14389
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HEPA: A Self-Supervised Horizon-Conditioned Event Predictive Architecture for Time Series
2026-05-13 15:10:18Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni, Camilla Mazzoleni, Federico Martelli, Philipp PetersenAbstract
Critical events in multivariate time series, from turbine failures to cardiac arrhythmias, demand accurate prediction, yet labeled data is scarce because such events are rare and costly to annotate. We introduce HEPA (Horizon-conditioned Event Predictive Architecture), built on two key principles. First, a causal Transformer encoder is pretrained via a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA): a horizon-conditioned predictor learns to forecast future representations rather than future values, forcing the encoder to capture predictable temporal dynamics from unlabeled data alone. Second, we freeze the encoder and finetune only the predictor toward the target event, producing a monotonic survival cumulative distribution function (CDF) over horizons. With fixed architecture and optimiser hyperparameters across all benchmarks, HEPA handles water contamination, cyberattack detection, volatility regimes, and eight further event types across 11 domains, exceeding leading time-series architectures including PatchTST, iTransformer, MAE, and Chronos-2 on at least 10 of 14 benchmarks, with an order of magnitude fewer tuned parameters and, on lifecycle datasets, an order of magnitude less labeled data.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.11130
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Compact Latent Manifold Translation: A Parameter-Efficient Foundation Model for Cross-Modal and Cross-Frequency Physiological Signal Synthesis
2026-05-13 09:31:36Bo Cui, Xiaowen Song, Yaowen Zhang, Shunzhe Zhang, B. J. F. van Beijnum, Monique Tabak, Ying WangAbstract
The analysis of physiological time series, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), is persistently hindered by modality and frequency gaps stemming from heterogeneous recording devices. Existing foundation models typically rely on continuous latent spaces, which frequently suffer from severe modality entanglement, lack high-fidelity cross-frequency generative capacity, and impose high computational costs that prohibit edge-device deployment. In this paper, we propose Compact Latent Manifold Translation (CLMT), a highly parameter-efficient (0.09B) unified framework that bridges these gaps through a novel two-stage discrete translation paradigm. First, we introduce a Universal Tokenizer utilizing Hierarchical Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to decouple heterogeneous signals into isolated, well-structured discrete latent manifolds, effectively preventing inter-modality interference. Second, a Context-Prompted Latent Translator maps these discrete tokens across modalities by integrating static physiological priors, reframing complex signal synthesis as a pure latent sequence translation task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our 0.09B model significantly outperforms massive baselines. In cross-modal PPG-to-ECG synthesis, it resolves temporal phase drift and dramatically improves the clinical R-peak detection F1-score from 0.37 (baseline) to 0.83. Furthermore, in extreme cross-frequency super-resolution (25Hz to 100Hz), it successfully recovers high-frequency diagnostic landmarks, achieving an unprecedented Pearson correlation of 0.9956. By learning a universal discrete language for biological signals with a fraction of the computational footprint, our approach sets a new trajectory for edge-deployable, multi-modal medical foundation models.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13248
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Grid-Orch: An LLM-Powered Orchestrator for Distribution Grid Simulation and Analytics
2026-05-12 20:31:34Boming Liu, Jin Dong, Jamie LianAbstract
The power distribution engineering workforce faces a projected shortage of up to 1.5 million engineers by 2030, creating urgent demand for more accessible analysis tools. This paper introduces Grid-Orch, a framework that bridges Large Language Models (LLMs) and power system simulation through the Model Context Protocol (MCP), enabling engineers to perform complex distribution analyses via natural language. Using OpenDSS as the reference implementation, Grid-Orch provides 36 domain-specific tools across eleven categories, covering power flow, voltage analysis, quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation, and automated optimization. A provider-agnostic LLM layer supports both cloud-hosted (Gemini, Claude) and locally deployed (Ollama, llama-cpp) models, enabling air-gapped operation for security-sensitive utility environments. Three optimization skills, capacitor placement, voltage violation analysis, and overvoltage mitigation, extend the platform beyond single-tool queries to multi-step engineering workflows. Grid-Orch is delivered as an interactive web platform with chat-based interaction, a QSTS dashboard, and feeder topology visualization, and renders simulation results inline. Workflow demonstrations show that distribution analyses formerly requiring hours of scripting, such as distributed energy resource (DER) interconnection screening, complete in under two minutes through natural language, producing numerically identical results to direct OpenDSS scripting.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12728
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LeapTS: Rethinking Time Series Forecasting as Adaptive Multi-Horizon Scheduling
2026-05-11 09:54:02Sheng Pan, Ming Jin, Bo Du, Shirui PanAbstract
Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat forecasting task as a fixed mapping from history to target horizons. This induces temporal decoupling across future time points and limits the model's ability to adapt to the evolving context as forecasting progresses. In this work, we present LeapTS, a novel framework that reformulates time series forecasting as a dynamic scheduling process over the prediction horizon. Specifically, LeapTS organizes the forecasting process into multi-level decisions using: (1) the hierarchical controller to dynamically select the optimal prediction scale and advancement length at each step, and (2) continuous-time state evolution driven by neural controlled differential equations. Within this process, the controlled update mechanism explicitly couples the irregular temporal dynamics with discrete scheduling feedback. Extensive evaluations on both real-world and synthetic datasets demonstrate that LeapTS improves overall forecasting performance by at least 7.4% while achieving a 2.6$\times$ to 5.3$\times$ inference speedup over representative Transformer-based models. Furthermore, by explicitly tracing the scheduling trajectories, we reveal how the model autonomously adapts its forecasting behavior to capture non-stationary dynamics.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.10292
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One-Step Graph-Structured Neural Flows for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Classification
2026-05-11 08:31:25Mengzhou Gao, Kaiwei Wang, Pengfei JiaoAbstract
Neural Flows efficiently model irregular multivariate time series by directly learning ODE solution trajectories with neural networks, bypassing step-by-step numerical solvers. Despite their efficiency, many existing approaches treat variables independently, leaving inter-variable interactions underexplored. Moreover, their one-step mapping makes interaction modeling inherently challenging, as it removes the iterative refinement of interactions during learning. To address this challenge, we propose one-step Graph-Structured Neural Flows (GSNF), which introduce two auxiliary-trajectory self-supervision strategies to strengthen interaction learning: (i) interaction-aware trajectory generation via re-initialization, which induces trajectory divergence to expose graph-induced interactions, with a theoretically derived lower bound on divergence; and (ii) reverse-time trajectory generation, which enforces forward-backward consistency to regularize graph learning, enabled by flow invertibility. Experiments on five real-world datasets show that GSNF achieves state-of-the-art classification performance with highly competitive training time and memory usage.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.10179
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TimeClaw: A Time-Series AI Agent with Exploratory Execution Learning
2026-05-11 06:09:17Hangchen Liu, Dongyuan Li, Renhe Jiang, Jiewen Deng, Weiwei Ye, Yoshihide SekimotoAbstract
Time series analysis underpins forecasting, monitoring, and decision making in domains such as finance and weather, where solving a task often requires both numerical accuracy and contextual reasoning. Recent progress has moved from specialized neural predictors to approaches built on LLMs and foundation models that can reason over time series inputs and use external tools. However, most such systems remain execution-centric: they focus on solving the current instance but learn little from exploratory execution. This is especially limiting in verifiable numeric settings, where multiple candidate executions and tool-use procedures may all be task-valid yet differ sharply in quantitative quality, and where early success can trigger tool-prior collapse that suppresses further exploration. To address this limitation, we present TimeClaw, an exploratory execution learning framework that turns exploratory execution into reusable hierarchical distilled experience through a four-stage loop: Explore, Compare, Distill, and Reinject. TimeClaw combines metric-supervised exploratory execution learning, task-aware tool dropout, and hierarchical distilled experience for inference-time reinjection, while keeping the base model frozen and avoiding online test-time adaptation. In an MTBench-aligned evaluation with 17 tasks that span finance and weather prediction and reasoning tasks, TimeClaw delivers consistent gains over the baselines. These results suggest that, for scientific systems, the bottleneck is not only execution-time capability, but how exploratory experience is compared, distilled, and reused.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.10038
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Intervention-Based Time Series Causal Discovery via Simulator-Generated Interventional Distributions
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We propose SVAR-FM (Structural VAR with Flow Matching), a framework for time series causal discovery that treats a physics-based simulator as a mechanical realization of Pearl's do operator. Clamping a variable inside the simulator physically severs confounding paths, producing interventional data by construction. Conditional Flow Matching then learns the nonlinear interventional conditionals. Theoretically, we prove that the full structural VAR becomes identifiable under a coverage condition on the simulator-clampable variables, and derive an end-to-end error bound that decomposes into Monte Carlo, simulator fidelity, and Flow Matching terms. A sign-flip corollary predicts that when simulator accuracy falls below a threshold, the estimated causal effect reverses sign. Empirically, a benchmark across four scientific domains confirms that SVAR-FM recovers the correct causal sign where observational methods produce sign-reversed estimates due to confounding. A case study in ultrafast laser physics verifies the sign-flip prediction by physically varying the accuracy level of a first-principles quantum solver: the low-accuracy setting reverses the causal sign, while the high-accuracy setting recovers the correct direction (R-squared = 0.983, zero bias).
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09870
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Yield Curve Forecasting using Machine Learning and Econometrics: A Comparative Analysis
2026-05-11 00:53:26Aman Singh, Tokunbo Ogunfunmi, Sanjiv DasAbstract
While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares forecasting performance on U.S. Treasury yield curve data across econometrics/time-series analysis, classical machine learning, and deep learning methods, using daily data over 47 years. The Treasury yield curve is important because it is widely used by every participant in the bond markets, which are larger than equity markets. We examine a variety of methods that have not been tested on yield curve forecasting, especially deep learning algorithms. The algorithms include the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and its extensions, naive benchmarks, ensemble methods, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and multiple transformers built for forecasting. ARIMA and naive econometric models outperform other models overall, except in one time block. Of the machine learning methods, TimeGPT, LGBM and RNNs perform the best. Furthermore, the paper explores whether stationary or nonstationary data are more appropriate as input to deep learning models.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09842
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TIDES: Implicit Time-Awareness in Selective State Space Models
2026-05-10 20:34:06Taylan Soydan, Miguel A. Bessa, Dirk Mohr, Rui BarreiraAbstract
Selective state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, achieve strong per-token expressivity by making the time discretization step $\Tilde{\Delta}$ a learned function of the input. However, in doing so, $\Tilde{\Delta}$ ceases to represent a physical sampling interval, limiting its irregular time series modeling capability. Continuous-time SSMs, such as S5, preserve the physical meaning of $\Tilde{\Delta}$ and handle irregular timestamps natively ($\Tilde{\Delta}\equiv\Delta)$, but their dynamics remain linear time-invariant (LTI), limiting per-token expressivity. We propose \textbf{TIDES}, a selective SSM variant that reconciles selective and continuous architectures by moving input-dependence off the step size and onto the diagonal state matrix. As a result, $\Tilde{\Delta}$ retains its physical meaning, tied to the state discretization, allowing the model to handle irregular timestamps natively without sacrificing the per-token expressivity that makes selective SSMs effective. We show this on a novel \emph{Fading Flash} experimental benchmark, a compact controlled diagnostic for sequence models that jointly tests input-dependence and extrapolation to out-of-distribution $\Delta$ values, and isolates the distinct failure modes of current state-of-the-art architectures that TIDES avoids by construction. On large-scale benchmarks, TIDES sets the new state-of-the-art average rank on UEA time-series classification and the Physiome-ODE regression benchmark. Code available at: this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09742
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Learning Unified Representations of Normalcy for Time Series Anomaly Detection
2026-05-10 18:12:22Prithul Sarker, Sushmita Sarker, Nicholas G. Murray, Alireza TavakkoliAbstract
The core challenge in unsupervised anomaly detection is identifying abnormal patterns without prior knowledge of their characteristics. While existing methods have addressed aspects of this problem, they often struggle to learn a robust representation of the normal data distribution that is distinct from anomalous patterns. In this paper, we present a novel framework, Unified Unsupervised Anomaly Detection ($\text{U}^2\text{AD}$), that comprehensively addresses anomaly detection in multivariate time series. Our approach learns the underlying data distribution of normal samples by utilizing score-based generative modeling. We introduce a novel time-dependent score network and a unified training objective that together delineate the manifold of normal data while considering both local and global temporal contexts. Reconstruction is then performed via a deterministic sampling process using an ordinary differential equation solver. Our extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that $\text{U}^2\text{AD}$ not only outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in detection accuracy but also identifies anomalies at significantly earlier stages of their occurrence.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09685
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ChaosNetBench: Benchmarking Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks on Chaotic Lattice Dynamics
2026-05-10 17:45:53Henok Tenaw Moges, Charalampos Skokos, Deshendran MoodleyAbstract
Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos ($K$), coupling strength ($\varepsilon$), and system size ($N$), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09676
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Spectral Transformer Neural Processes
2026-05-10 12:17:29Xianhe Chen, Hao Chen, Yingzhen LiAbstract
Time series, spatial data, and images are natural applications of Neural Processes. However, when such data exhibit strong periodicity and quasi-periodicity, existing methods often suffer from underfitting and generalise poorly beyond the training distribution. In this work, we propose Spectral Transformer Neural Processes (STNPs), a frequency-aware extension of Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs). STNPs introduce a Spectral Aggregator that estimates an empirical context spectrum, compresses it into a spectral mixture, samples task-adaptive spectral features, and concatenates them with time-domain embeddings, thereby injecting a spectral-mixture-kernel bias into TNPs. This design reshapes the similarity geometry, allowing inputs that are distant in Euclidean space to remain close in an induced periodic manifold while enhancing time-frequency interactions. Extensive experiments on synthetic regression tasks, real-world time-series datasets, and an image dataset demonstrate that STNPs consistently improve predictive performance over existing baselines, extending Neural Processes beyond translation equivariance towards effective modelling of periodicity and quasi-periodicity.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09498
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Empowering VLMs for Few-Shot Multimodal Time Series Classification via Tailored Agentic Reasoning
2026-05-10 07:47:09Lin Li, Jiawei Huang, Qihao Quan, Dan Li, Boxin Li, Xiao Zhang, Erli Meng, Wenjie Feng, Jian Lou, See-Kiong NgAbstract
In this paper, we propose the first VL$\underline{\textbf{M}}$ $\underline{\textbf{a}}$gentic $\underline{\textbf{r}}$easoning framework for few-$\underline{\textbf{s}}$hot multimodal $\underline{\textbf{T}}$ime $\underline{\textbf{S}}$eries $\underline{\textbf{C}}$lassification ($\textbf{MarsTSC}$), which introduces a self-evolving knowledge bank as a dynamic context iteratively refined via reflective agentic reasoning. The framework comprises three collaborative roles: i) Generator conducts reliable classification via reasoning; ii) Reflector diagnoses the root causes of reasoning errors to yield discriminative insights targeting the temporal features overlooked by Generator; iii) Modifier applies verified updates to the knowledge bank to prevent context collapse. We further introduce a test-time update strategy to enable cautious, continuous knowledge bank refinement to mitigate few-shot bias and distribution shift. Extensive experiments across 12 mainstream time series benchmarks demonstrate that $\textbf{MarsTSC}$ delivers substantial and consistent performance gains across 6 VLM backbones, outperforming both classical and foundation model-based time series baselines under few-shot conditions, while producing interpretable rationales that ground each classification decision in human-readable feature evidence.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09395
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SSDA: Bridging Spectral and Structural Gaps via Dual Adaptation for Vision-Based Time Series Forecasting
2026-05-10 07:17:08Mingrui Zhang, Hanchen Yang, Wengen Li, Xudong Jiang, Yichao Zhang, Jihong Guan, Shuigeng ZhouAbstract
Large vision models (LVMs) have recently proven to be surprisingly effective time series forecasters, simply by rendering temporal data as images. This success, how ever, rests on a largely unexamined premise: the rendered time series images are sufficiently close to natural images for knowledge in pre-trained models to transfer effectively. We argue that two gaps still remain, i.e., spectral and structural gaps, fundamentally limiting the potential of LVMs for time series forecasting. Spectrally, we systematically reveal that rendered time series images exhibit a markedly shallower power spectrum than the natural images LVMs are pre-trained to recognize. Structurally, reshaping 1D temporal sequences into 2D grids fabricates spurious spatial adjacencies while severing genuine temporal continuities, misleading the spatial inductive biases of pre-trained LVMs. To bridge these gaps, we propose SSDA, a dual-branch network that spectrally and structurally adapts to unlock the full potential of LVMs for time series forecasting. At the data level, a Spectral Magnitude Aligner (SMA) applies 2D FFT to selectively enhance the magnitude spectrum toward natural-image statistics while preserving phase. At the model level, a Structural-Guided Low-Rank Adaptation (SG-LoRA) injects position-aware temporal encodings into patch embeddings and adapts at tention via low-rank updates. The two branches are further adaptively fused to produce the final forecast. Extensive experiments on seven real-world benchmarks demonstrate that SSDA consistently outperforms strong LVM- and LLM-based baselines under both full-shot and few-shot settings. Code is publicly available at this https URL.
Abstract (translated)
URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12550
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From Detection to Recovery: Operational Analysis on LLM Pre-training with 504 GPUs
2026-05-10 06:46:06Daemyung Kang, Eunjin Hwang, Hanjeong Lee, HyeokJin Kim, Hyunhoi Koo, Jeongkyu Shin, Jeongseok Kang, Jihyun Kang, Joongi Kim, Junbum Lee, Jungseung Yang, Kyujin Cho, Youngsook SongAbstract
Large-scale AI training is now fundamentally a distributed systems problem, and hardware failures have become routine operating conditions rather than rare exceptions. Public operational evidence from production training clusters, however, remains scarce. This technical report presents an empirical analysis of a 63-node NVIDIA B200 production cluster (504 GPUs), using 55 days of Prometheus time-series data and 73 days of operational logs covering 224 multi-node training sessions. The cluster operates within a cross-organizational environment in which five parties (SKT, Upstage, Lablup, NVIDIA Korea, and VAST Data) share a unified monitoring pipeline. This arrangement enabled joint diagnosis of a 60-node-scale storage I/O bottleneck that did not appear at 2-4-node scale, a production-scale phenomenon no single team could isolate alone. Drawing on a months-long pre-training campaign, we perform three quantitative analyses yielding four findings. First, statistical analysis over 751 Prometheus metrics and 10 XID-identified GPU failures achieves a 10/10 detection rate (2/10 pre-XID) at ~0.84 false positives per day. No single metric is consistently dominant across failure types, motivating a multi-signal detection strategy. Second, profiling 523 checkpoint events along the GPU VRAM to NFS path attributes the "bandwidth paradox" (1.4-10.4% utilization of 200 Gbps RoCE) to saturation of the 128-slot NFS RPC layer. Third, multi-node failure response shows concentrated exclusions (top 3 of 63 nodes account for >50% of all exclusions) and an auto-retry chain success rate of 33.3% over 12 chains (73 attempts), 2.7x the 12.5% manual recovery rate; the median retry interval is 11 min (IQR 10-11). All analyses are grounded in production infrastructure providing session-level workload management, GPU-centric scheduling, and unified observability.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09370
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Do LLMs Experience an Internal Polylogue? Investigating Reasoning through the Lens of Personas
2026-05-09 20:42:13Nils A. Herrmann, Leander Girrbach, Kirill Bykov, Zeynep AkataAbstract
Recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) encode behavioural traits ("personas") as linear directions in activation space, often called "persona vectors". Prior work has used such directions as static handles for behavioural steering. Building on this, we treat them as dynamic signals instead: probes we can monitor and intervene on as reasoning unfolds. We use the term polylogue to denote the time series of alignments between persona vectors and hidden activations over the course of generation. Experiments across four open-weight models show that polylogue features predict correctness on MMLU-Pro competitively with low-dimensional activation baselines, while remaining interpretable through their associated persona directions. They also suggest concrete steering targets, namely which latent directions to modulate at different stages of a response. We instantiate this as a simple paragraph-conditioned intervention that improves accuracy on three of four models, pointing to stage-aware latent steering as a promising direction for reasoning-time control. Together, this positions the polylogue as an interpretable tool for reasoning-time monitoring and intervention.
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URL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.09159
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