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Evaluating Counterfactual Sensitivity to Patient Information in Medication-Safety Reasoning

2026-08-04 02:17:16
Zhitian Hou, Yuhang Liu, Pengkai Wang, Zeyu Liu, Guanghao Zhu, Zheng Liu, Shuo Cai, Congkai Xie, Zhijie Sang, Kun Zeng, Hongxia Yang

Abstract

Applying a valid medication-safety rule when its patient-specific conditions are not met can produce an incorrect decision. Existing medical evaluations largely use isolated and fixed scenarios. A model may therefore answer correctly by recalling a drug-risk association without showing that it used patient information to decide whether the rule applies. To address this gap, we introduce MedPIC-Bench, a benchmark of source-verifiable recommendations and expert-validated questions for patient-specific medication-safety reasoning. It combines guideline-following questions with paired counterfactual questions in which a controlled change in patient information changes whether a rule applies. The benchmark contains 467 questions annotated along six clinical and reasoning dimensions. Across 28 medical-specific, general, and proprietary LLMs, every model performs worse on counterfactual questions, with mean accuracy falling from 63.6\% to 45.1\%. Models perform well when an explicit patient attribute directly signals a familiar contraindication, but struggle when patient information must narrow or withdraw a safety warning. Model rationales often acknowledge the changed patient information, yet the final answers retain the previous safety judgment. This vulnerability persists among medical-specific LLMs, whose average CF performance trails that of general LLMs. MedPIC-Bench therefore makes conditional rule application measurable and highlights the limitations of static medication-safety accuracy for assessing patient-specific reliability.

Abstract (translated)

URL

https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03028

PDF

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.03028.pdf


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